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Barrister Manzoor Hasan in Conversation with René Holenstein: A Deep Dive into the Future of the Rohingya Crisis, Global Politics, and Civil Society

September 8, 2024 Centre for Peace and Justice

Following is the full transcript of an interview with Barrister Manzoor Hasan, Executive Director of the Centre for Peace and Justice, Brac University, conducted by René Holenstein, former Swiss Ambassador to Bangladesh.

An abridged version of this interview was published in German in August 2024 by the Swiss Society for Foreign Policy (SGA-ASPE), a non-profit organisation founded in 1968 with the aim of promoting interest in Swiss foreign policy and making it accessible to a broad audience. You can read the published interview in German here.

Part I

  1. While European governments and political factions lament the influx of refugees, it is a matter of fact that developing countries are accommodating most of the world’s refugee population. What are your thoughts about this?

Manzoor Hasan: According to UNHCR statistics, 75% of refugees and others in need of international protection worldwide are hosted by low- and middle-income countries, with the least developed countries providing asylum to 21% of the total.

I think this underscores the disparity in global responsibility sharing when it comes to refugee hosting. The developing countries, despite lacking adequate resources and infrastructure, have to support large refugee populations going way beyond their capacity.

  1. So what is needed is more financial support from the better-off countries to the host countries?

Manzoor Hasan: Not alone. When a refugee crisis occurs, in the initial years, financial support keeps pouring in, alleviating some of the pressure. As new crises emerge and attention of the international community shifts over time, funding for preceding crises starts to decline quite rapidly. This has been the case in point in relation to the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.

This is when things get very difficult for host countries, and this is where the issue of responsibility sharing becomes even more crucial. While dealing with one crisis, the international community must not forget about the other crises altogether. They should strive to give equitable importance to every crisis. This should not be limited to funding only, rather extend to all endeavours to find durable solutions.

  1. Let’s talk about the Rohingya crisis. What precipitated the influx of more than 700.000 refugees to Bangladesh in 2017?

Manzoor Hasan: The Rohingya in Myanmar have faced decades of systematic discrimination, statelessness and targeted violence. Thus, their forced migration to neighbouring countries, particularly Bangladesh, is not a new phenomenon. Perhaps the Rohingya being denied all forms of citizenship under the 1982 Burma Citizenship Law, and its continuation to date, is the most notorious example of the discriminatory treatment that they have experienced in Myanmar.

After Burma’s independence in 1948, persecution of the Rohingya by various governments continued to escalate, resulting in four major waves of influx to Bangladesh prior to 2017. The 2017 influx is particularly significant as it was the largest and fastest, drawing considerable attention from the international community and bringing Myanmar’s treatment of the Rohingya to the forefront of global discourse.

  1. What happened in 2017?

This influx into Bangladesh was ostensibly triggered by Rohingya militia attacks on several police and army posts in Myanmar, which led to a retaliatory campaign of horrific violence and terror by state security forces targeting the Rohingya community. Available evidence from credible sources indicates that, under the pretence of a clearance operation, the forces killed 7803 people, with many women and girls raped.

  1. What roles do China, Russia, and the US play? And what about Europe?

Manzoor Hasan: The responses of China, Russia, US, and Europe to the Rohingya refugee crises have varied depending on their evolving relationships with Myanmar and Bangladesh.

China has positioned itself more as a mediator, holding several rounds of discussions with Myanmar and Bangladesh seeking to kick-start the process of repatriation and to resolve conflicts in Myanmar. It has also made some financial contributions for the Rohingya refugees.

However, with its expanding economic interests in Myanmar, informed observers worry that China’s efforts are primarily guided by its own interest in maintaining peace and stability in Myanmar, rather than by a genuine concern for the Rohingya refugees.

  1. How about Russia?

The Russia–Myanmar relationship is slowly gathering more strength due to Myanmar’s efforts to reduce dependence on China. Like China, Russia has refrained from engaging in any harsh criticism of the Myanmar military for their actions. Furthermore, it has often supported the ruling government at the international stage.

For example, in 2022, both China and Russia blocked the UN Security Council  from issuing a statement expressing concern at the violence and serious humanitarian situation in Myanmar and the “limited progress” on implementing a regional plan to restore peace to the strife-torn Southeast Asian nation.

  1. And the West?

The US and Europe, on the other hand, have been very vocal about condemning the atrocities and ethnic violence Myanmar’s military has committed against the Rohingya and pushing for accountability in different international institutions.

In 2022, after years of sustained campaigning by advocates for the minority group and global human rights organisations, the US formally declared Myanmar’s military actions against the Rohingya minority as “genocide.”

European Union governments have consistently advocated for the restoration of democracy in Myanmar, especially since the 2021 coup. They have emerged as significant donors for those affected by escalating conflicts in Myanmar including the Rohingya refugees.

  1. Is there a likelihood of the conflict spilling over into Bangladesh’s territory?

Manzoor Hasan: Over the last year or so, we have seen numerous instances of the Myanmar conflict spilling over into Bangladesh.

For example, in February this year, a mortar shell reportedly fired from Myanmar exploded in Bangladesh, claiming the lives of at least two people, including a Rohingya man, and injuring others.

In the same month, for the first time since the launch of Operation 1027, 264 members of Myanmar’s border and security forces sought shelter in Bangladesh amidst heavy conflict between Myanmar’s army and the Arakan Army, and this has become a common phenomenon now.

As fighting continues to escalate in Maynamr’s Rakhine, tens of thousands of Rohingya have fled towards Bangladesh for safety since May this year.

In fact, the recent developments surrounding Bangladesh’s Saint Martin Island is a stark reminder for the key actors that unless immediate measures are taken to control the tense situation in Myanmar, we are likely to see more instances of conflicts spilling over into Bangladesh in the near future.

This, for obvious reasons, will have a deep detrimental impact on the possibility of safe and sustainable repatriation of Rohingya refugees.

  1. What solutions – if any – do you envision for the Rohingya crisis?

Manzoor Hasan: There’s no alternative to pursuing diplomatic avenues in this regard. Opportunities for greater dialogue and engagement between old and emerging actors must be created, not only to address the root causes of the Rohingya mass displacement but also to diffuse tensions between larger and smaller ethnic groups in Myanmar.

Besides, the international community must be mindful of their responsibilities under the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol, along with the Global Compact on Refugees and other relevant documents. This includes engaging more actively in responsibility sharing to ensure adequate support and protection for the Rohingya refugees.

They must realise that Bangladesh, a country with very limited resources, has done everything in its power to stand beside and support the nearly one million Rohingya refugees it is sheltering. With funds for the Rohingya dwindling and the prospect of repatriation remaining far off, Bangladesh is under immense pressure at the moment, which is expected to increase in the future.

Many other global crises of significance have emerged since 2017, but it’s still too soon to let the Rohingya crisis be forgotten. At the very least, the international community should increase financial contributions and, concurrently, take steps to create a conducive environment for safe and sustainable repatriation. They should also explore the possibility of resettlement of Rohingya refugees in third countries, particularly the developed ones.

  1. What specific measures could Switzerland undertake to address the Rohingya crisis effectively?

Manzoor Hasan: Switzerland can leverage its deep-rooted connections with Myanmar, Bangladesh, and other key players in Asia, such as China and India to become an even more significant player not only in preventing further escalation of violence but also in finding a durable solution for the Rohingya. It can also facilitate diplomatic engagement between key actors to promote peaceful resolution of conflicts.

Furthermore, it can also utilise its diplomatic capital to secure more humanitarian and development assistance for the Rohingya in Bangladesh and Myanmar. Moreover, it can take a more proactive stance and convince others to follow suit in ensuring accountability for violations of human rights and promoting justice for Rohingya victims through international mechanisms.

Last but not least, it can support various initiatives in Myanmar and Bangladesh aimed at strengthening democracy, institutions, governance, and social cohesion. This is a crucial and effective step toward promoting long-term stability in both the countries.

Part II

  1. Global politics is in a state of upheaval, marked by the economic and political rise of China. How do you perceive China’s role?

Manzoor Hasan: In one of my previous co-authored scholarly contributions, I discussed the important role China can play in finding a durable solution to the Rohingya crisis. I will confine my remarks within that context.

Thus far, China’s role in this regard has been quite unimaginative and disappointing. It is limited by its pursuit of maintaining close ties with the ruling Myanmar government due to its growing economic investments in the country, as well as its possible aim to disrupt India’s expanding diplomatic and economic presence in Myanmar,.

China’s diplomatic efforts geared towards the repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar and the creation of a peaceful and stable environment within Myanmar have seen very little progress thus far.

  1. Should China be more vocal on the international stage?

As I mentioned before, China has always refrained from joining the international community in condemning Myanmar’s military for their atrocities against the Rohingya people and in various efforts to ensure justice for them.

Given China’s influence in the region and its close ties with both Bangladesh and Myanmar, it certainly could have achieved much more by now in favour of the Rohingya people. Instead of achieving a safe and sustainable return of the Rohingya refugees to Myanmar, China has focused solely on its own interest and assets in Myanmar, particularly the Rakhine.

  1. What do you think of Russia’s increasingly systematised and radicalised view of the world?

Manzoor Hasan: Russia’s position is influenced by its overriding strategy to challenge Western hegemony, or at least to maintain its image as an opposer of Western dominance. This has given rise to a more chaotic multi-polar international system.

Its action in Ukraine is a case in point, which has further damaged its relationship with the West, risking significant economic and diplomatic fallouts that have impacted the global scenario. This ultimately means a more fractional world order resulting in more refugees worldwide.

In the context of Myanmar, Russia won’t go against China, and will continue to use their veto power to block resolutions in the UN Security Council  which are critical of Myanmar Junta.

  1. International development cooperation, conflict prevention and peace promotion are increasingly questioned in the West. How do you interpret this trend?

Manzoor Hasan: I think the scepticism of the West is valid. Why? Just look at what’s going on in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, and Myanmar, for example. The post-Second World War international order has been severely compromised giving rise to double-standards and lack of trust of politicians.

Conflicts have been on the rise since 2012, after a dip in the 1990s and early 2000s, underscoring the failure of international diplomatic efforts. Furthermore, legal mechanisms have not proven to be much effective in holding those responsible accountable.

On the other hand, international development projects have often failed to bring about sustainable changes for many reasons. These reasons include corruption,, rigid models that disregard national and regional diversity, and weak legal systems giving rise to impunity.

I do think that it is high time that we review the existing global systems and mechanisms, and bring about necessary changes to make them more effective and efficient.

  1. How does this trend impact Bangladesh?

Manzoor Hasan: Despite the fact that Bangladesh has achieved a remarkable growth trajectory over the last two decades, we have been scoring poorly on the governance front.  The gap between the rich and the poor has widened and political engagement has become erratic within the overall framework of relative societal stability.

Bangladesh hasn’t seen any armed conflict and the law enforcement agencies have done a remarkable job in suppressing the threat of terrorism that loomed over the country since the 1990s. This achievement has come at the expense of compromised citizens’ entitlements, such as civil rights and participation rights.

  1. Looking ahead, what is your perspective on the future role of Civil Society-based organisations?

Manzoor Hasan: The increasingly shrinking democratic space around the world, coupled with rapidly declining funds, has made it very difficult for Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) to function.

In Bangladesh, for example, some CSOs, especially those working on rights-based issues, are facing an existential crisis due to an acute shortage of funds, among other challenges. Under the changed circumstances, I don’t expect CSOs to play the same prominent role that they once played since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971. The lead role will have to be played by other actors who are best positioned to do so, and most likely it will be the private sector in partnership with the government of the day.

Thus, moving forward, the role of influential countries such as the US, China, Russia, UK, India and the EU will become even more crucial in a multi-polar world.

  1. Seen from a development country’s perspective, what would you expect from the West, including Switzerland?

Manzoor Hasan: There’s a lot to be done here. I’ll mention a few that I think should be addressed as a matter of priority in the coming years.

First, they should aim to establish and promote rule of law, good governance, human rights, civic participation, and peaceful transfer of power — all crucial elements of democracy.

Second, despite the financial turmoil triggered by Covid-19, it is crucial that the West continues to offer sufficient financial support to relevant stakeholders in developing countries, taking into account the pressing challenges that demand immediate attention (e.g. the Rohingya refugee crisis for Bangladesh).

Third, the West should create more avenues to collaborate with stakeholders in developing countries, fostering the exchange of advanced technologies and expertise held by them.

Last but not least, Switzerland should increase its effort to prevent conflicts and engage in peacebuilding in order to foster peace and promote justice, the foundational elements for sustainable growth.